When winter started, natural gas inventories were well above the five-year average and threatening to exceed the upper range. After one of the coldest winters in decades it’s a different story. EIA reports that working gas in underground storage is now below the five-year average and nearing the lower range.

Spot market trading in the Henry Hub benchmark has been consistently above $4.00/mmbtu, and north of $5.00/mmbtu in futures contracts at the end of 2025.

In addition to an increase in heating demand, other factors have driven storage levels to 23% lower year-over-year. Record LNG exports and gas production disruptions have help fuel the bulls. The Yale Budget Lab estimates that tariffs on Canadian energy imports to the US could drive natural gas prices up another 5%.