Over the next two years, EIA expects natural gas demand in the U.S. to grow more than natural gas supply. EIA forecasts supply of natural gas, including both production and imports, to rise by 1.4 Bcf/d in 2025, while demand for natural gas, including domestic consumption and exports, rises by 3.2 Bcf/d.

Exports are the leading source of natural gas demand growth. EIA expects exports of natural gas by pipeline and as liquefied natural gas (LNG) to increase by 2.9 Bcf/d in 2025, with most of the increase coming from LNG exports. Two new LNG export facilities—Plaquemines LNG and Corpus Christi LNG Stage 3—started producing LNG in December 2024, and Plaquemines LNG loaded its first cargo on December 26.

EIA also forecasts consumption in the residential and commercial sectors to increase in 2025 to meet expectations of colder weather than in 2024. However, the forecast sees a decrease in consumption in the electric power sector in 2025 as natural gas prices rise and more renewables and coal are used to generate electricity, displacing some natural gas-fired generation capacity.

The U.S. begins 2025 with 6% more natural gas in storage than the previous five-year average. With demand growth outpacing supply growth this year, EIA expects inventories will be drawn down to 4% below the five-year average by the end of 2025. As the storage surplus of the last two years diminishes, we expect some upward pressure on prices.