NOAA predicted earlier this year that a La Niña was most likely to emerge in October-December 2024 (57% chance) with expectations to persist through January-March 2025.

The recent lake effect snowstorms could prove NOAA’s merit. A La Niña weather pattern often leads to increased lake effect snow, particularly around the Great Lakes region, as it typically creates colder air masses over the lakes, which are then readily available to pick up moisture and produce heavy snowfall when passing over the warmer lake waters. La Niña conditions can enhance the conditions needed for significant lake effect snow events.

The La Niña weather pattern also calls for above average temperatures in the south. This is consistent with ERCOT’s recent winter report where its meteorologist forecast a warm winter across Texas.

Despite the blizzards, heating degree demand in Buffalo for the week ending November 30 was 66 HDDS below norm. In Erie, PA it was 97 HDDs below average and in Cleveland it was 56 HDDS  below norm.